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Being Heumann, Obsession and The Housewife
'Being Heumann,' 'Obsession' and 'The Housewife' Apple TV; Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection; Courtesy of TIFF

Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Updated Post Venice and Telluride, as TIFF Gets Underway

Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter's executive editor of awards coverage, updates his assessment of all 24 Oscar categories.

A NOTE FROM SCOTT Since my first forecast of the season posted on Sept. 2, the 83rd Venice Film Festival and the 53rd Telluride Film Festival have come and gone, and the 51st Toronto International Film Festival has kicked off, so there has been significant movement on the charts. To recap some recent developments…

Venice enthusiastically embraced the world premieres of the disturbing Gaza documentary NAZA (a record 25-minute standing ovation), the Javier Bardem/Penélope Cruz reunion Bunker (16 minutes), Martin McDonagh’s eccentric dramedy Wild Horse Nine (14 minutes), the To Catch a Predator dramatization Primetime (9 minutes) and Lee Chang-dong’s Possible Love (6 minutes). The fest’s Maggie Gyllenhaal-led jury will announce its prize winners later today.

Javier Bardem and Penélope Cruz attend the world premiere of Florian Zeller’s Bunker at the Venice Film Festival on Sept. 8. (Photo by Marilla Sicilia/Archivio Marilla Sicilia/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images)

Telluride also flipped for Wild Horse Nine, as well as for the world premieres of the unusual documentary You Can See Everything (a surprise screening at the fest), the Julianne Moore showcase The Debut and the Andrew Scott and Carrie Coon vehicles Elsinore and The Liberation, respectively. Additionally, Cannes carryovers La Bola Negra and Club Kid played through the roof in their North American bows, as did Rose, for which Sandra Hüller won the best actress prize in Berlin.

A Long Winter’s Andrew Haigh, Club Kid’s Jordan Firstman and Cara Delevingne, The Debut’s Julianne Moore and Elsinore’s Andrew Scott ahead of the North American premiere of Club Kid at the Telluride Film Festival on Sept. 5. (Photo by Vivien Killilea/Getty Images)

The opening weekend at TIFF has been somewhat muted, presumably in part because of the fest’s unofficial policy of not programming in its first few days films that played at Venice or Telluride. Thursday, the fest’s opening night, featured the world premieres of Being Heumann (THR review), Sian Heder’s follow-up to best picture Oscar winner CODA, and The Housewife (THR review), starring Naomi Watts, both of which were received warmly.

Sian Heder flanked by the cast of Being Heumann ahead of the film’s world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival on Sept. 10. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images)

A highlight of TIFF’s Friday was the return of Obsession, which premiered in the fest’s Midnight Madness section a year ago en route to massive commercial success and considerable Oscar buzz this year. Director Curry Barker, 26, and star Inde Navarrette, 25, participated in a charming and insightful TIFF Dialogue before screening their film again, the first of several upcoming stops for the two — together and separate — on behalf of the film’s little-engine-that-could awards campaign.

Obsession star Inde Navarrette and writer/director/editor Curry Barker participate in a Dialogue at the Toronto International Film Festival on Sept. 11. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)

Saturday night brings the highly-anticipated unveiling of I Play Rocky, which Amazon/MGM surely hopes can retrace the path of an earlier Peter Farrelly movie that premiered at TIFF en route to winning the fest’s audience award and several Oscars, including best picture: Green Book.

A friendly reminder that the Feinberg Forecast aims to project what will happen, not to advocate for what should, and does not rank films that its namesake has not seen or that remain under embargo.

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